Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans Final Score & Over/Under Result — Mar 16, 2026

The market opened at 240.5, and this matchup delivered a careful, quarter-by-quarter story that ended just 0.5 points shy of the line. New Orleans jumped early with 32 points in the opening frame while Dallas managed 26, setting a defensive tone that would persist throughout. The first half combined for 121 points—a pace that suggested the over was in play—but the Pelicans' steady offensive output and Dallas's continued struggles on that end kept the total reachable rather than runaway.

The third quarter became the decisive inflection point. A combined 68 points—the game's highest-scoring quarter—tightened the tracking considerably, pushing the game toward the over with 189 combined through three quarters. But Dallas's fourth-quarter collapse to 25 points, paired with New Orleans settling for 26, created the narrow miss: a final combined 240, landing under by just half a point. Naji Marshall led Dallas with 32 points, 8 rebounds, and 7 assists, while Cooper Flagg added 21 points and 8 assists. For New Orleans, Zion Williamson posted 27 points, and Saddiq Bey chipped in 23. The Pelicans' recent form—118.9 points per game over their last ten—proved more predictive than Dallas's anemic 105.5, and their head-to-head history this season (three meetings between 200 and 233 combined) suggested a tightly contested ceiling. DAGGER leaned over; it missed by the slimmest of margins.