Golden State Valkyries vs Indiana Fever Final Score & Over/Under Result — Jul 15, 2026

The 166.5 market total looked steep from the jump. Golden State and Indiana combined for 38 points in the first quarter—already a sign that this would be a plodding affair—then slowed further to just 32 combined in the second, leaving the first half at 70 points and the under firmly in control. Indiana trailed 40–30 at the break, and the trajectory suggested a low-scoring finish, especially given Golden State's recent form (78.2 ppg over its last 10 games) and Indiana's defensive capability (92.5 allowed per game).

The script flipped entirely in the second half. A 39-point third quarter signaled momentum shifting, then the fourth exploded for 54 combined—the game's highest-scoring frame—as both teams abandoned caution. Golden State's fourth-quarter barrage, fueled by Gabby Williams (16 points, 3 rebounds) and Kaitlyn Chen (14 points, 3 assists), outpaced Indiana's late push. Kelsey Mitchell led the Fever with 20 points and 4 assists, while Aliyah Boston added 15 points and 7 rebounds, but it wasn't enough. The final combined total of 163 fell 3.5 points short of the pregame line, landing firmly under.

DAGGER's pregame over call missed, but the live adjustment paid off. The model's second-half pivot captured what the market initially underestimated: the volatility lurking in the second half of a defensive grind.