Portland Fire vs Phoenix Mercury Final Score & Over/Under Result — Aug 16, 2026

The 177.5 market total looked vulnerable from the opening tip. Portland and Phoenix combined for just 40 points in a sluggish first quarter, then 38 in the second, keeping the pace well below the pregame line through halftime. At 78 combined points for the first half, the under was firmly in play—the game would have needed to average roughly 50 points per quarter over the final 24 minutes to reach the Over number, and early momentum suggested otherwise.

That projection shifted in the third quarter, when the teams erupted for 47 combined points, the third quarter alone tightening the margin. The fourth quarter turned into a shootout: 48 combined points as the two teams traded baskets in a frantic finish. Portland's Carla Leite led the Fire with 21 points, 5 assists, while Megan DiLeo added 15 points and 5 rebounds. DeWanna Bonner paced Phoenix with 23 points and 6 rebounds, and Kahleah Copper chipped in 19 points and 7 boards. Alyssa Thomas anchored the Mercury with 17 points, 11 rebounds, and 9 assists in a near triple-double effort.

Despite the fourth-quarter fireworks, Portland held on 88–85, combining for just 173 points. The final total landed 4.5 points under the market line. DAGGER's pregame lean to the Under cashed, though a live adjustment during the game missed as the late surge nearly pushed the total over the number.