Las Vegas Aces vs Golden State Valkyries Final Score & Over/Under Result — Oct 4, 2026

The market opened at 158.5 and ticked up 1.5 points to 159.5 by tip-off, but Golden State's defense proved sufficiently stifling to send the total down hard. Las Vegas and Golden State combined for just 131 points, landing well under the number by 27.5 in a grinding affair that never threatened to approach the pregame projection.

The first quarter offered a misleading signal of scoring to come. Combined, the teams put up 40 points—a pace that, if sustained, would have crushed through the closing number. But Golden State clamped down immediately thereafter. The second quarter saw only 25 combined points, the lowest quarter output of the night, setting the tone for a slog that neither team could accelerate. Gabby Williams led the Valkyries with 25 points and 11 rebounds, anchoring a defense that held Las Vegas to just 12 fourth-quarter points. A'ja Wilson paced the Aces with 24 points, while Chelsea Gray contributed 16 and Jackie Young added 11 points and 5 assists, yet their scoring threats were largely contained across the final two quarters.

The second half mirrored the first in combined output—66 points in each half—but the damage was already done by halftime. Las Vegas had surrendered its offensive edge; despite recent form showing the Aces averaging 96.8 points per game, their isolation couldn't overcome Golden State's stingy 74.2-point average. DAGGER's pregame call on the over missed decisively, though the model's live adjustment cashed.