New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat Final Score & Over/Under Result — Jan 4, 2026

The market opened at 247.5, but this game was destined to run dry from the opening tip. Q1 erupted for 82 combined points—a fierce start that suggested a shootout was brewing—yet Miami and New Orleans would spend the next three quarters systematically undercutting expectations. The Heat won 125–106, combining for 231 points, 16.5 shy of the posted total. DAGGER leaned under, and it cashed.

After that scorching first quarter, the pace collapsed. The second half yielded just 99 combined points across 24 minutes, with Q3 the death knell at a mere 38 points. Miami's defense tightened, and New Orleans' offensive rhythm stuttered. Norman Powell carried the Heat with 34 points and 3 assists, while Nikola Jović added 19 points and 6 rebounds. For the Pelicans, Trey Murphy III paced the attack with 27 points, 8 rebounds, and 5 assists; Jeremiah Fears contributed 21 points. The bench depth—Derik Queen's 13 points and 6 rebounds, Kel'el Ware's 16 points and 12 rebounds for Miami—managed the closing stages without inflating the total.

The first half's 132 combined points masked what was effectively a grind-it-out second half. Miami's recent form (118.2 points per game over its last 10) aligned with this outcome, while New Orleans' league-leading pace (121.5 scored per 10) couldn't overcome Miami's half-court control. By Q4, both offenses had emptied their tanks, combining for 61 points in the final 12 minutes—still well below the pre-game projection.